Hamid Karzai: Afghanistan's weakest link

David Cameron's 'national security' call has a hollow ring in Kabul, where the western-backed leader is ever more a liability


Poor old David Cameron. He flies into Kabul ready to promise all kinds of assistance for the Afghan police, army and governance, trumpeting the importance of "the national security approach".
Unfortunately, he arrives just at a point when Afghanistan's national security strategy itself may be crumbling into disarray.

The resignation of interior minister Hanif Atmar and the head of Afghanistan's intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), Amrullah Saleh, risks creating a period of instability that threatens British policy here as well as that of other western allies.
Atmar and Saleh's failure to prevent the rocket and suicide bomber attack on last week's peace jirga – although none of the 1,600 delegates were injured – was held up as the reason for their forced resignations, but the rift goes much deeper than that.

Both men were staunch opponents of opening peace talks with the Taliban and both have had significant fallings-out with Karzai in the past. Saleh, in particular, was concerned at Karzai's softening attitude towards Pakistan. In an interview last night on Afghan TV, Saleh made it clear he held Pakistan responsible for much of the Taliban insurgency.

Karzai's overtures towards Pakistan are proving unpopular with both the public and within government, viewed as an eccentric move especially at a time when western support for Pakistan is shifting and its role in the Afghan insurgency facing closer scrutiny.
One rumour here is that Saleh's removal was a Pakistani condition for directing the Taliban into peace talks. Another is that the president's latest decision to set up a commission to review the cases of Taliban prisoners held without sufficient evidence may have been the last straw.

Whatever the truth, the departure of these two men, both highly respected by Afghanistan's western allies, leaves a power vacuum in two of the most crucial areas for Afghanistan's stability.
And this void won't be an easy one to fill, not least because the term of parliament expires next Monday, followed by the start of the campaign season and the departure of most candidates to the provinces. Parliament will only sit again following the elections due on 20 September.
Kabul is now braced for further attacks with militants expected to exploit the confusion in the wake of the resignations, not to mention the already floundering fight against organised crime and corruption.

The NDS is one of the few institutions that is not only functioning but also a model for other government bodies, says political analyst Haroun Mir. "If we have an incompetent director the whole institution could unravel within months and we would face a disaster."
A summer of potential violence also risks serious effects on Barack Obama's intention to begin a US withdrawal next year, a plan that relies on strengthening the capacity of Afghan forces – in particular, the police.

In one fell swoop, it seems, Karzai has managed to get rid of two of his most able lieutenants, imperil the country's security strategy and drive a wedge between himself and his western backers. It doesn't appear too rational. But some here say that Karzai has long gone beyond sound judgment.
"I think Karzai is in survival mode," says Mir. "He is all about tactics and no longer has any strategy, otherwise he would be behaving differently. He feels he is being attacked from all sides and that there is a conspiracy against him, both from the west and within his own country."
It seems that Cameron is only the latest in a long line of western leaders to have stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Karzai, making pledges of unity and support through slightly clenched teeth.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/10/hamid-karzai-afghanistan-david-cameron